Mathematics 9709 · AS & A Level · The Poisson distribution

The Poisson distribution — practice question

Megan communicates with her friends in one of $3$ possible ways: text, email or social media. For each message, the chance that she uses text is $0.3$ and the chance that she uses email is $0.2$. She gets an immediate reply to a text message with probability $0.4$, to an email with probability $0.15$ and to social media with probability $0.6$.
(i)[2]

Draw a complete labelled tree diagram for this information.

(ii)[4]

Given that Megan does not get an immediate reply to a message, find the probability that the message was an email.

Worked solution & mark scheme

This 6-mark question has a full step-by-step worked solution and mark scheme. One marking point: Correctly labelled tree with all first-stage ('Send') probabilities correct

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