Mathematics 9709 · AS & A Level · Sampling and estimation

Sampling and estimation — practice question

Ayman’s breakfast drink is tea, coffee or hot chocolate with probabilities 0.65, 0.28, 0.07 respectively. If he has tea, the probability that it includes milk is 0.8. If he has coffee, the probability that it includes milk is 0.5. If he has hot chocolate, it always contains milk.
(i)[2]

Draw a tree diagram with full labels to show this information.

(ii)[3]

Find the probability that Ayman’s breakfast drink is coffee, given that his drink contains milk.

Worked solution & mark scheme

This 5-mark question has a full step-by-step worked solution and mark scheme. One marking point: Correct probability tree layout with either one branch after HC or two branches with 0 probability displayed correctly; clear labels and annotation

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